I’m back. I was the retard that said long $CHTR at $109. Well they’re $132 now. I would have made some serious bank (60k) but they collapsed to near $100 so I sold before earnings @ $108 to sell at near break even.
Why you shouldn’t listen to me:
I lost $90,000 longing $CHTR with leverage from $140 -> $108
Why you could gamble with me:
I was right about the price movement in the short term but was just a pussy.
I’ve also managed to make back 42k of my 90k loss in the last 15 trading days.
Thesis:
$CHTR are essentially me @ $141. They have become even more leveraged into a degrading business. They doubled down with the Cox acquisition, another dying broadband. They have even worse numbers. $CHTR doubled down on an even bigger loser.
They have a terrible culture and that can rarely be fixed. I worked there as a contractor for almost two years and it was miserable. The only reason I went long 3 months ago was I didn’t think it could go lower. Surprise!
Also they don’t give a fuck about shareholders. In 2009 they wiped them out and filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.
They are in such jeopardy they have hired Nick Jeffrey as COO to turn things around. He has a good track record but these things take 2-3 years usually. I think there could be a buying opportunity in the far future possibly but for now I am forecasting a continued slow death by their own hubris and an evolving market.
My opinion is we are entering a bear so you should short every rally. Burry has a hypothesis that the beaten down stocks in the S&P500 will absorb the losses from the greater market and you’ll see breadth recover. However, this is for value stocks… whatever BRKB owns (look at their performance lately). However I no longer label $CHTR as value. It is a value trap. And will get kicked out of the index club soon enough.
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GPT summarization from last earnings:
Legacy Charter lost 156,000 customers (a steeper drop than the 109,000 lost in Q3 2025).
Legacy Cox lost 77,000 customers.
Management pointed to ongoing pressure from fixed wireless (5G home internet) and fiber overbuilders.
Massive GAAP Net Loss & Impairment Charge: Charter swung to a steep GAAP net loss of $2.40 billion (or -$20.50 per share, compared to a profit of $1.14 billion in Q3 2025). This was driven primarily by a $6.33 billion non-cash franchise impairment charge—an accounting admission that the long-term fair value of its cable franchise assets has deteriorated
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Short term risks:
There is a battle between institutional holders right now. Citi upgraded 140->150 and they ran +10% in one day… surprise. There is heavy short interest so someone might have spooked the shorts. Goldman and Wells Fargo are targeting close to 100. Last time they downgraded the stock collapsed from 150->100. So some deep pockets are fighting and using sneak attacks like last week.
The price could easily go up another 10-20% to 150-175. Could wipe out the shorts again. My intuition says we chop and slightly move up for the next month and the best time to short is in early December. But I went short today anyway. I will sell for a loss if they move past $140.
TLDR: 130 January 130 puts.